Welcome to Eric's Investment Diary with HEYBIT!

Here, I would like to share my diverse investment experiences, insights, and the lessons learned along the way. From the joys of successful investments to the challenges presented by market volatility, this diary will serve as a chronicle of my journey through the crypto world.
I look forward to investing alongside all of you, our HEYBIT customers, until we all achieve our financial goals together!

Market Overview

• Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • The U.S. Department of Labor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March increased by 3.5% year-over-year, surpassing the February rise of 3.2%. This exceeded market expectations of a 3.4% increase. The core CPI also rose by 3.8% compared to last year, exceeding the anticipated 3.7%.

• U.S. Treasury Yields
  • Following the CPI and core CPI both exceeding forecasts, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has risen to 4.5%.

• Federal Reserve Interest Rate Consensus
  • According to the CME, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is 98.4% for May and 76.8% for June, especially in light of March's CPI exceeding expectations.

• Bank Bitcoin Purchases
  • 13F SEC Filings reveal that U.S. banks are purchasing Bitcoin.

• Hong Kong's First BTC Spot ETF
  • It's anticipated that Hong Kong's SFC will approve the first Bitcoin spot ETF on April 15, leading to significant capital inflow from Chinese investors. Consequently, China-related tokens have shown a sharp increase, with Bitcoin successfully maintaining its price.

• Bitcoin Halving event incoming
  • With just 8 days left until Bitcoin's halving, the price has been consolidating within the below-gray range. Despite the diminishing consensus on a June interest rate cut, an immediate rebound is evident, suggesting spot ETF inflows will increasingly influence Bitcoin’s price. A clear trend is expected to emerge after the halving.

My Investment

• Now, I’m still managing $1,500 USDT each in Alpha Binance and Beta HAI. However, considering the upcoming Bitcoin halving, I'm thinking of shifting my investment from HAI to HMI, anticipating that Bitcoin will lead a bull run, followed by the altcoin season. I plan to make my decision within this week.

• Last week, the returns on both Alpha and HAI dropped to around -9%, almost reaching my stop-loss limit of -10%. Luckily, both assets showed a rapid bounce from here.

• I'm still adhering to my strategy of exiting positions either at a -10% loss or securing profits between +30% to +50%. Afterward, I'll reassess the market conditions before deciding on re-entry.
  
  

My Beta

• Compared to Last week,
  • HAI’s Return : -5.24% → -1.14% (+4.1%)
  • HAI’s PNL: -78.66 USDT → -17.12 USDT (+61.54 USDT)
  • I'm really happy to see a significant recovery from last week. However, since I'm still experiencing losses, I'm hoping to turn to positive gains this week. My target profit of 30-50% is still a long way off! Let's keep pushing, Beta!

  

My Alpha

• Compared to Last week,
  • Alpha’s Return : -8.55% → -2.62% (+5.93%)
  • Alpha’s PNL : -128.28 USDT → -39.34 USDT (+88.94 USDT)
  • Alpha's Return nearly dropped to -10%, and I was preparing to cut my losses, but fortunately, it rebounded from this dip. If it continues to recover and shows an upward trend, I'm considering increasing the leverage to either 1.5x or 2x.

  

So…

Entering the market during a correction phase led to a tough week filled with not only unease but also significant downturns, which was distressing.

However, I'm incredibly proud of both Alpha and Beta for their rebounds. With the Bitcoin halving approaching and the potential for high volatility around this event, I plan to continuously monitor the market.

Though it's disheartening to still be in a loss, I'm holding on with the expectation of significant gains post-halving.

Updated on April 11, 2024